In a bold move at the 2025 World Economic Forum held in Davos from January 20–24, U.S. President Donald Trump urged the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to lower global oil prices. His rationale? He believes that reducing oil prices could financially squeeze Russia and help end the ongoing war in Ukraine. While the strategy seems straightforward, OPEC’s response—or lack thereof—tells a more complex story.
Why OPEC Isn’t Bowing to Pressure
Despite Trump’s call, industry experts, including analysts at Standard Chartered (StanChart), are doubtful that OPEC will adjust its plans. Here’s why:
OPEC’s Scheduled Output Increase
OPEC already has a roadmap in place. Starting in April 2025, it plans to gradually boost oil production after multiple delays caused by weak global demand. Altering this strategy now could disrupt their efforts to maintain market stability.Balancing Oil Supply and Demand
One of OPEC’s primary goals is to prevent market oversupply, which could lead to a price crash that would hurt member nations. Stability in the oil market is more critical to OPEC than responding to geopolitical pressures.Historical Lessons
Lower oil prices have influenced global politics before—most notably in the 1980s, when falling prices contributed to the weakening of the Soviet Union. However, experts argue that today’s geopolitical challenges require a broader range of tools, such as diplomacy and economic sanctions, beyond oil price adjustments.
What This Means for Nigeria
For Nigeria, a key OPEC member, the focus is on stabilizing oil production rather than lowering prices. The country’s daily oil output has dropped from over 2 million barrels in 2019 to just 1.5 million in 2024. With production challenges at home, Nigeria is less concerned with global price manipulation and more interested in improving its production capacity.
OPEC’s upcoming review meeting may discuss strategies for the months ahead, but major policy shifts are unlikely. The organization’s current priority is playing the long game and maintaining stability in global oil markets.
The Bottom Line
While Trump’s request made headlines, it’s unlikely to result in immediate action from OPEC. The global oil market is driven by a mix of politics, economics, and long-term strategy—not quick fixes. For now, OPEC and Nigeria are sticking to their plans, keeping their eyes on the bigger picture.
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